Sunday, April 15, 2007

Stephane Dion's Future is Dim

Kirk West posted today on Steffi and the prospects of him not getting a chance to actually run against Stephen Harper.
I posted a few pieces that weren't picked up by aggregators - Here on the questionable wisdom of Dion and here on his foolishness.
One point I make is that Dion must be flying on his own on the Lizzie May union - that there is no possible way that he would have been advised to do this by Canada's smartest political minds.
In essence, he has become a rogue leader - out there on his own, acting out against the guidance of those who are the real heart and soul of the LPOC. Most of these are Chretienites and have been around the block for decades and seen it all and won a lot more elections than they have lost.
They never liked the Martin / Chretien feud but had to go along with it given the power of those two leaders and their ability to translate this into electoral victories.
They do not have to support this Dion gambit.
Dion has no large constituency in the party, especially among its sharpest minds. He wasn't even a consensus choice, but rather the beneficiary of a deal with another pipsqueak.
So what's in his future.
I have heard from LPOC organizers that a Harper majority in the election will result in Dion staying on for a leadership race in 3-4 years. My post in December describes this. A minority Harper win will result in his resignation immediately with a leadership race organized for the fall.
The knives are definitely out - Rae and Iggy are both aiming for a do over, and Finlay and Kennedy are looking for seats to boost their credibility.
But will this result in a replacement prior to a Spring 2008 vote?
Can't see it - the damage to LPOC credibility would be even greater than what Steffi has wrought.
They'll have to grin and bear it and accept that it will be at least 2011 or beyond before they get a chance to loot the treasury again.

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