Evening Blue Lemons Report - Newman Taber - Oct 9

New Decima Poll
National:
CPC 35 --- LPOC 28 --- NDP 17 --- Green 10
Grits can lose 20 seats based upon the 2% loss of support. This shows a trend that could - in a well run campaign - result in 42%+ for the CPC.

Quebec:
BQ 35 --- CPC 26 --- LPOC 14 --- Green 12 --- NDP 11
Lessard says expect big gains for CPC in Rural Quebec. Green support is phoney.Almost no Francophone in Quebec will vote for Dion; his own tribe has abandoned him. Lessard says that Harper will find a way to get Dion to vote against Throne Speech and we'll go to the polls.

Ontario:
LPOC 38 --- CPC 34 --- NDP 18 --- Green 10
This is a bit of a smokescreen - ridings are not evenly population distributed, urban ridings are strongly Grit and Dip, which skews the provincial figures. This is likely a dead heat.

On Bob Rae going into Shadow Cabinet - Ditchburn says it's a great idea which probably means it's a dumb idea.

Beaver Goodale, Peggy Nash and Peter Van Loan collectively contribute nothing of interest. Am not going to even bother reporting on political hacks in the future. Not worth the digits. Will cover Reid and Powers on Friday when I get a chance. Other than that - not worth it.

Newman says that McGuinty should be a little less confident in declaring victory two days before the vote. Ecker, Cordiano and Churley. Didn't Marilyn look in a mirror? Maril - it's national TV not the Coren show. Comb your hair. And stop interrupting.

Conclusion on Ontario - Faith Based Schools have destroyed Tory's Tories victory chances.

Supposition that Throne Speech may state that the Grit/NDP Clean Air Act "will be repealed". This would likely force the Grits to defeat the Throne Speech. Note to self - cancel lunches and dinners from October 26 to Dec 3. Party Hardy on Dec 3rd - 8 pm til 3 am.

LeDrew, Robin Sears and Anderson - Rae on Shadow Cabinet - Robin: form an entire govt without electing anyone - election sign; LeDrew - no election - Dion still in trouble and not enough for a CPC majority.

Laghi and Weston with Taber - Thought no election - Have Grits been snookered? They will be playing for time. Choose your executioner - can't get worse for Liberals - now or March. Clean Air Bill gone forever. Talk about Majority might move people to vote against McGuinty. Weston thinks Tories cooked.

Mostly a waste of air time. Poll was interesting but could be felt in the air - there's been a surge since Dion blowed himself up. No surprises, pat assumptions, basic analysis. Bad hair. 1/10