Sunday, January 29, 2006

Cdn Blue Lemons December 17 2005 Seat Forecast

Originally Posted Dec 17 2005
CPC - 124
Lib - 103
PQ - 51
NDP - 28
Ind - 1
Not a bad guess

I think the Libs sense some things that aren't showing up in the polls and some that are. The Chretienites are hurting not helping - a lot maybe even silently hoping for a CPC victory. Quebec is lost - maybe a dozen seats fewer there. Rural Ontario is fading - maybe a dozen lost there. These events alone result in a CPC minority government. If the trend continues and the Tories pick up an extra dozen seats outside of Quebec and Ontario, all of a sudden the CPC has 40% of the seats in the House and reverses the current standings.
My read given this scenario:
CPC - 122
Lib - 103
PQ - 63
NDP - 20
And if this scenario happens, which party would pull the string on an election in the next two years. They'd get slaughtered.
I can smell fear.

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