Monday, June 22, 2009

US Open Proves Difficulty in Forecasting Weather

They even brought in Al Roker, the successor to the original Bozo the Clown Ronald McDonald (Willard Scott) as America's favorite weatherman.
All day long Thursday and Friday on NBC's US Open coverage consultation with the weatherman laureate was held to predict the chances of the tournament being completed.
The forecast was ghastly, Roker predicted waterfalls of rain for the entire weekend with only momentary absenses. He sounded like Noah in his pre-ark period.
All the punters changed their odds calculations to favour those hoary souls who came from northern climes like Sweden, Norway, Northern Island and Canada.
But guess what...
After that wild and wet first day, and an afternoon on Friday that saw a fair amount of drizzle, the weather has been terrific. And the players are carving up what was promised to be a monster.
And who's leading?? Guys from San Diego and South Texas.
With all the complexities of weather forecasting distilled down to looking at the radar maps to identify what the weather patterns were down wind from Bethpage Black, they still got it absolutely 100% wrong.
How can anyone take with a straight face forecasts of the climate or weather a hundred years or even one year from now?
Don't say that it is easier to forecast long term than hourly.
That defies common sense.

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