Thursday, June 19, 2008

The Facts, Ma'am. Just the Facts. Climate Alarmism Backgrounder Updated 6/11/08

Thanks to the efforts and commitment of this planet-saving organization, 112,000,000 lbs. of CO2 was added to the earth's atmosphere on June 12 as a result of human belching.

Basic Tenets of Climate Alarmism
#1--The earth is warming at an abnormal pace
#2--Man is the primary cause of this warming (anthropogenic global warming, AGW)
#3--The warming trend is dangerous/catastrophic
#4 --Man can do something to save the planet from the man-made warming

Tenet #1-- Is The earth warming abnormally?
Al Gore: “We are now in a planetary emergency, and we cannot afford the luxury of allowing the oil and coal industry to prop up their surrogates in the lying right-wing media." (NBC Today 4/1/07)

A. Current Warming Consistent With History
*Fact--Earth emerged from “Little Ice Age” about 150 years ago (extremely low sunspot activity); steadily (and naturally) warming.
*Fact--Earth has experienced much warmer periods than today: Medieval Warming Period (Medieval Climate Optimum, 1100AD)
*Current warming since 1900: .74 degrees Celcius
*”Icecore data from the ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment) shows that temperatures have fallen since around 4,000 years ago (the Bronze Age Climate Optimum) while CO2 levels have risen.”

B. Recent Warming not alarming
*Pre 1940 warming not attributable to AGW
*Climate cooled from 1940-1975 during rising GHG. TIME 6/24/74: “Another Ice Age?”
*Questionable whether any warming from 75-96
*No warming trend since 1998; new studies show global cooling thru 2015
*In Solar Cycle 24, very low sunspot activity--may lead to global cooling.

C. Weather stations not in compliance
* Meteorologist Anthony Watts has monitored nearly half of US monitoring stations: “the vast majority of them are out of compliance of NOAA's own published specifications for station sighting.”
*100 foot rule -- 87% break this rule
*56% have artificial heating source within 10 meters; 13% sit next to/above heating source; thus, 69% within 10 meters.

Tenet #2 -- Man is the primary cause of GW
IPCC: “…[W]e are now at least 90% certain that this is mostly due to human activities.”

A. Is There Really Scientific Consensus?
*Manhattan Declaration: “That there is no convincing evidence that CO2 emissions from modern industrial activity has in the past, is now, or will in the future cause catastrophic climate change.”
*31,000 scientists have signed a statement contesting the conclusion of AGW; called the Oregon Petition.
*Bill Gray, nation’s preeminent hurricane forecaster; MIT's Richard Lindzen, Neil Frank (former director Ntl Hurricance Ctr) all reject AGWarming

B. CO2 and man-made CO2 represents a fraction of the total greenhouse gases
*CO2 has risen from 280ppm to 360ppm; doubling of CO2 at most is 2 degree temp increase
*Water vapor is the “most important atmospheric greenhouse gas”
*water vapor accounts for 95% of the greenhouse effect. (govt figures discount)

C. Rising CO2 follows warming!
*The ice core data reveals that CO2 changes FOLLOW climate warming, so the long lens of history does not show that CO2 is even a good predictor (never mind cause) of global warming.

D. Sun causes global warming? What a concept!
*”There now is little doubt that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change on a decadal time scale.”
*It is reasonable to theorize that the sun (not man) is the prime-mover of fluctuations in the earth's temp
*could be sun spots, level of cloud cover.

Tenet #3--Is warming dangerous/catastrophic?

A. Al Gore’s Dire Predictions…And Reality
*Al Gore: GW causes disastrous weather events (see his movie promo image).
*Gore’s movie full of inaccuracies according to British judge; requires disclaimers when used in school.
*20 foot sea level rise; snows of Kilimanjaro, drowning polar bears, Hurricane Katrina--all rebuffed
*MIT Professor Kerry Emanuel-- the key scientist for Al Gore’s theory-- has recanted and now says GW and severe hurricanes not connected; may drop over next 100 years.
*IF true, GW would cause less temp diff between poles and equator and thus less tropical storms

B. Rise in CO2 might actually be GOOD!
*CO2 not a pollutant! Necessary for life (FYI catalydic converters convert CO into CO2!)
*Rising CO2 good for plants and animals and good for the economy (+$37billion by 2050 if CO2 doubles)
*Gross Primary Production (GPP) of plant life up 6.2% in past two decades

Tenet #4--Can man solve problem anyways?
Time Mag: “Everyone agrees that it's necessary to reduce carbon emissions around the world.”

Man’s Efforts Won’t Work Anyways
*”The Kyoto Protocol– even if punctiliously observed by all participating nations – would decrease calculated future temperatures by only 0.02 degrees C by 2050, an undetectable amount.

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