Thursday, May 01, 2008

The Simple Truth for Bio Fools - From Anon Reader

Great stuff from a former Manitoban on the Biofool Dilemma.
I know we like to lay all the blame at the feet of the biofoolish do-gooders insistence on replacing fuels from the earth, with fuels from the earth that need a little Goddish work by humans to substitute natural processes with artificial and saving about 10 million years.
But as pointed out below, there is more to it...

From Anon in comments on previous Post
This problem is a lot more than just a simple grain going to biofuels causing this rise.
Call it more the perfect storm:
-Part very ambitious biofuels mandates/targets by governments. This creates subsidized demand and changes producers planting intentions.
-A change in philosophy by exporting countries (govt involvement again). Back in the late 70's, early 80's accounting practices started being enforced. Suddenly people who owned the grain were shown the true cost of carrying grain for up to a year,ouch! Most countries quickly switched to the popular Japanese JIT (just in time) way of managing inventory. Those except for the CWB, but that's another story for another day.
-Mix in a dash of 2 years of bad crops in major growing areas (Australia, FSU, Europe)
-China and India adopting the North American consumptive nature.
-and the final piece de resistance, investment money. People trying to retire by age 40-50 giving large amounts of money to managed funds eg Goldman Sachs, CARPAS (2 of many). These folks have billions of dollars at their disposal and trying to find the next big thing (they are involved in all commodities: grains, energy, metals) so they can earn the 20%+ per annum they have guaranteed their investors.
The end game: countries who normally would export grain, holding back stocks to try and put a cap on their own inflation. Less grain on the market, more freaking out, panic.
If you look at the overall carryout numbers, especially on rice which has gone stupid, you will notice there is more than ample supplies to get to new crop supplies but because of the above and the media's insatiable appetite to go all henny penny, chaos insues.
I get a front row seat to this madness every day and must say watching, reading the debates go on is quite interesting, amusing and infuriating all at the same time.
Don't get me started on crude oil...

Escaped MB

No comments: